Simulated Changes in Seasonal and Low Flows with Climate Change for Irish Catchments

We assess changes in the seasonal mean and annual low flows (Q95) for 37 catchments across Republic of Ireland. Two hydrological models (SMART GR4J) are trained evaluated their ability to capture key signatures from observations before being forced with bias corrected outputs 12 Earth System Models CMIP6 ensemble. Projected derived three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP370 SSP585) 2020s, 2050s, 2080s. The results show a wide range change all metrics catchment sample. While even direction is highly uncertain spring autumn, there tendency towards increased winter reduced summer, together large reductions flows. Under SSP370, median reduction summer 2080s simulated by GR4J −21.3 percent (90 CI: 4.8 −36.9 percent). For Q95, 2080s, returns −20.9 −2.5 −38.2 percent), while SMART suggests −21.2 −6.0 Such would pose significant challenges water management, requiring adaptation. Notably, particular, emissions under SSP126 result more moderate future changes, indicating importance both adaptation mitigation sustainable management.